estimation of non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (nairu) and potential output

Authors

امیر خالصی

amir khalessi سازمان مدیریت و برنامه ریزی کشور سیما صیامی نمینی

sima siami namini سازمان مدیریت و برنامه ریزی کشور

abstract

this paper tries to survey and estimate non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (nairu) and potential output. it uses the unobserved components model to propose a new method. the model consists of ukan law equations and philips curve. it uses unobservable key economic variable in the form of unobserved random trends in an equation system of three variables namely unemployment, gross domestic product (gdp) and inflation rate. the model parameters are estimated through maximum likelihood method and kalman filter. unobserved components are estimated by means of soothing algorithm. the findings of estimation show that the production gap has negative relationship with the deviation of unemployment from non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (nairu). the effect of business cycles on unemployment and inflation rates has been negative. this means that if real unemployment rate reaches the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (nairu), the economy will be at the maximum level of production free from inflation pressure. according to the results of the paper, this rate has been estimated 7 percent in iran during 1989-2002.

Upgrade to premium to download articles

Sign up to access the full text

Already have an account?login

similar resources

5/RT/99 - The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) in a Small Open Economy: The Irish Context

In Ireland the link between real disequilibrium (such as the unemployment gap) and inflation (either price or wage) is blurred by external factors, operating through traded goods price inflation. Attempts to extract information about the unobservable NAIRU from aggregate inflation measures, such as the HICP or wages inflation, are likely to be swamped by these external factors. This paper uses ...

full text

برآورد نرخ بیکاری همراه با تورم غیرشتابان و تولید بالقوه

This paper tries to survey and estimate Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) and potential output. It uses the unobserved components model to propose a new method. The model consists of Ukan Law equations and Philips Curve. It uses unobservable key economic variable in the form of unobserved random trends in an equation system of three variables namely unemployment, gross dom...

full text

Comparison of Small Area Estimation Methods for Estimating Unemployment Rate

Extended Abstract. In recent years, needs for small area estimations have been greatly increased for large surveys particularly household surveys in Sta­ tistical Centre of Iran (SCI), because of the costs and respondent burden. The lack of suitable auxiliary variables between two decennial housing and popula­ tion census is a challenge for SCI in using these methods. In general, the...

full text

: the effect of sericin levels (silk glue protein) on rate of in vitro maturation, fertilization and culture of sheep oocytes

هدف از آزمایش اول بررسی اثر سطوح مختلف سریسین [0 (control), 0.1, 0.5, 1.0, 2.5 %] افزوده شده به محیط , ivm بر cumulus cell expansion، بلوغ هسته و توسعه متوالی جنین، در گوسفندان نژاد سنجابی در فصل تولید مثلی می باشد. از سرگیری میوز به وسیله خارج شدن اولین پولار بادی اندازه گیری و هم چنین درصد رسیدن جنین های دو سلولی به مرحله کلیواژ و بلاستوسیت نیز به عنوان نشانه ای از میزان شایستگی توسعه اولیه ج...

My Resources

Save resource for easier access later


Journal title:
برنامه ریزی و بودجه

جلد ۹، شماره ۳، صفحات ۶۷-۹۴

Keywords

Hosted on Doprax cloud platform doprax.com

copyright © 2015-2023